Thursday, September 11, 2008

Indiana could go Democratic

Indiana might go Democratic for the first time since, well, who knows but a long damned time.

I know the red base has become more energized since Palin, ok.  It does seem like Obama is in a lull and *needs* to get back on the offensive (the media offensive, that is - lots could be said about THAT). 

But the energy, the action, the organization, and the get-er-done is definitely still on Obama's side I think. 

In 2004,

             Primary           General

Democrats:   335,000 --------> 969,000
Republicans: 469,000 --------> 1.4 million

That was a year in which George Bush ran uncontested through the primaries, although there was a vigorously fought general election.

This year, John McCain is running and seems to have injected some energy into the Republican base but I think the right's past love-hate relationship with him will still prove a factor.  I know too many people here who I would picture as McCain supporters but who say that don't like him and don't plan to vote.  Obama meanwhile has certainly generated a lot of excitement and built a huge machine, especially here in Indiana. 

In the primaries this past year, with a hotly contexted Democratic primary and a decided Republican primary (by the time Indiana voted):

Democrats:     1.27 million
Republicans:   411,000

It depends on how motivated the republican voters are and on what happens with the 646,000 Hoosiers who voted for Hillary.

* From Indiana Secretary of State Elections Division Statistics.  Numbers are approximations...

** A good-sized chunk of Obama supporters have only a cellphone and/or have just moved back to college, many into dorms.  I wonder what impact this might be having on these stupid, daily polls?

No comments: