Indiana might go Democratic for the first time since, well, who knows but a long damned time.
I know the red base has become more energized since Palin, ok. It does seem like Obama is in a lull and *needs* to get back on the offensive (the media offensive, that is - lots could be said about THAT).
But the energy, the action, the organization, and the get-er-done is definitely still on Obama's side I think.
In 2004,
Primary General
Democrats: 335,000 --------> 969,000
Republicans: 469,000 --------> 1.4 million
That was a year in which George Bush ran uncontested through the primaries, although there was a vigorously fought general election.
This year, John McCain is running and seems to have injected some energy into the Republican base but I think the right's past love-hate relationship with him will still prove a factor. I know too many people here who I would picture as McCain supporters but who say that don't like him and don't plan to vote. Obama meanwhile has certainly generated a lot of excitement and built a huge machine, especially here in Indiana.
In the primaries this past year, with a hotly contexted Democratic primary and a decided Republican primary (by the time Indiana voted):
Democrats: 1.27 million
Republicans: 411,000
It depends on how motivated the republican voters are and on what happens with the 646,000 Hoosiers who voted for Hillary.
* From Indiana Secretary of State Elections Division Statistics. Numbers are approximations...
** A good-sized chunk of Obama supporters have only a cellphone and/or have just moved back to college, many into dorms. I wonder what impact this might be having on these stupid, daily polls?
I know the red base has become more energized since Palin, ok. It does seem like Obama is in a lull and *needs* to get back on the offensive (the media offensive, that is - lots could be said about THAT).
But the energy, the action, the organization, and the get-er-done is definitely still on Obama's side I think.
In 2004,
Primary General
Democrats: 335,000 --------> 969,000
Republicans: 469,000 --------> 1.4 million
That was a year in which George Bush ran uncontested through the primaries, although there was a vigorously fought general election.
This year, John McCain is running and seems to have injected some energy into the Republican base but I think the right's past love-hate relationship with him will still prove a factor. I know too many people here who I would picture as McCain supporters but who say that don't like him and don't plan to vote. Obama meanwhile has certainly generated a lot of excitement and built a huge machine, especially here in Indiana.
In the primaries this past year, with a hotly contexted Democratic primary and a decided Republican primary (by the time Indiana voted):
Democrats: 1.27 million
Republicans: 411,000
It depends on how motivated the republican voters are and on what happens with the 646,000 Hoosiers who voted for Hillary.
* From Indiana Secretary of State Elections Division Statistics. Numbers are approximations...
** A good-sized chunk of Obama supporters have only a cellphone and/or have just moved back to college, many into dorms. I wonder what impact this might be having on these stupid, daily polls?
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